Disbelieve the Big Four’s hype at your peril – that’s the thinking we have had drilled into our subconscious for the past 14 years, ever since Roger Federer won his first Wimbledon title in 2003.
A tennis institution, the inimitable quartet of Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have dominated the sport unlike any other group of players in the history of the Open Era, forming an unshakable bond between them, to become household names and history-makers.
However, as the start of Wimbledon looms into focus, the group’s tight-fisted grip has started to loosen, trembling against the opposing strain of another force looking to wrest control over to a new side – an emerging oligarchy.
The likes of Alexander Zverev, one of the sport’s rising talents, Dominic Thiem and the recalcitrant Nick Kyrgios have started to swarm like a pack of starved wolves, and they look ready to push the established order hard in the coming weeks.
Although there is a certain resistance amongst fans, and players alike, to a total upsetting of the current order, it’s obvious that a change will come about sooner rather than later. While the likes of Kei Nishikori, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic and others have failed to successfully usurp the dominant talents, the fresh wave of young, well-rounded professionals, advancing behind them are viewed by many as another opportunity – one that could finally dismantle the Big Four for good.
Nadal has struggled with recurring knee injuries with each passing year and while his historic La Decima at Roland Garros earlier in June will go down as one of the greatest triumphs in the history of tennis, it’s easy to see why the ‘King of the Clay’ might have pushed his body one step too far. That is despite the upgrade of his backhand and his more precise forehand which mean he has less travelling to contend with on the harsher surface.
Murray, too, stumbled badly during his preparations at Queen’s and despite his protestations to the contrary it is impossible to dismiss his early exit as unfortunate. The run-in to SW19 is uber-important, especially for a player essentially coming to play on home soil. While any potential weaknesses in mentality were certainly dashed in recent years, following phenomenal success and the clinching of the world no.1 spot, with Murray it feels as if those doubts are only a tip-toe away from creeping back into his mind, something a shell-shock on the shale will not help with whatsoever.
Djokovic, too, suffered something of a meltdown in Paris and while it is always dangerous to bet against such a highly-skilled player such as ‘Nole’, it’s also naïve to dismiss his defeat to Dominic Thiem as just another uncharacteristic slip-up. The truth is much darker than that. It’s another faux-pas to add to quite a long list for the Serbian already this year – the defeat to wildcard Denis Istomin at the Australian Open, the opening round exit at the Mexican Open, the defeats at both Indian Wells and the Monte Carlo Masters all plot a downward trajectory.
Seemingly now without a coach and without his 2016 verve, ‘Djoker’ could do with a vigorous re-shuffling of his pack, and not even that will see him fix his problems until much later this year.
As for Federer, he cruised to victory at Halle and is perhaps in the best position of all the Big Four to win at Wimbledon – but considering it has been almost five years since he won it last, and at 35 is almost four years older than Arthur Ashe when he became the oldest Open Era winner at SW19 in 1975, it does not look promising even for him.
And so, to the future.
Zverev is perhaps best placed of all the rising starlets to truly puncture the upper echelons.
Ranked 24th at the start of the year, he is now 12th – having been no.10 for the consecutive three weeks preceding that – evidence of his constantly-improving nature. He is tall, deceptively muscular and has a wide-array of skills to call upon in the heat of battle.
One look at the way he got himself out of dodge against Roberto Bautista Agut proves just how inventive he can be under pressure.
Looking specifically at Wimbledon, Zverev is well equipped to have a big impact at the third Grand Slam of the year. He likes to play on grass, something his superb performances at Halle, where he reached the final against Federer, have certainly attested to. Although he hasn’t played as much on that surface as he might have liked, his natural comfort on it suggests that he will take to it with ease once the whipped cream and strawberries announce themselves.
Plus, his rangy frame and ability to pack a swift punch with his first and second serve, as well as his punchy groundstrokes, mean that the pacey nature of grass should serve him well in making a deep surge.
Of course, only seven 20-year-olds have managed to win Grand Slam titles in the Open Era – none at Wimbledon – so statistics are not on his side, but to announce his arrival as a big tournament player once and for all, he doesn’t need to emerge as the overall champ.
He just needs to prove himself worthy. Taking down a few legacies would be a good place to start.
