Plymouth Argyle are flying in League One. The Pilgrims are top of the table with 13 wins from 17 matches, 36 goals scored (the most in the division), and are the first team in the Football League to pass the 40-point mark.
On Monday night, the Pilgrims came from behind twice in the Devon derby with Exeter City and eventually won the game 4-2 at Home Park. They have 41 points to their name for the season and, on the face of it, you would believe that they are strolling through this division.
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They are four points ahead of their closest promotion rivals Ipswich Town and seven points separate them from Sheffield Wednesday in third. But what is the secret to their success?
There is no denying that Steven Schumacher is working wonders this term with the consistency his squad are showing. They appear to be bouncing back in style after suffering heartbreak at the end of 2021-22 as a defeat to MK Dons saw them miss out on a play-off place.
Smart recruitment in the summer has been key to Plymouth’s surprising high-flying start to the season. The most notable acquisitions have been loanees from Premier League and Championship sides. Their joint-top scorer Morgan Whittaker (seven goals, five assists) joined from Swansea City while their second leading marksman Finn Azaz (six goals, three assists) arrived from Aston Villa.
The Pilgrims lured striker Sam Cosgrove (five goals) from Birmingham City and defender Bali Mumba (three goals, seven assists), also from Swansea.
Each of these players have been playing exceptionally well this term, as have the wider squad. Forward Ryan Hardie has found the back of the net on seven occasions while fellow attacker Niall Ennis has himself been involved in eight of Plymouth’s 36 goals in League One.
From an attacking point of view, everything seems perfect and it is at this present moment in time but there are some concerns.
Here is where the xG comes in. For how good Plymouth have looked going forward, they are considerably outperforming their xG (expected goals). Despite netting 36 times already, their xG is recorded as just 18.7.
They have practically scored double what has been expected from them and while you can praise them for being clinical, it isn’t the most stable way to build a promotion push.
When you then look at the stats per game, Plymouth have the sixth best xG per game in the division with 1.6. Ipswich (2.19), Sheffield Wednesday (1.96), Peterborough United (1.78), Wycombe Wanderers (1.77) and Derby County (1.68) are all ahead of them in that department.
Another key factor in their ridiculous start to the season is their goalkeeper Michael Cooper, who has been playing out of his skin. The 23-year-old, who has been tipped for a big future in the game, has made a whopping 58 saves in 2022-23. Only Morecambe’s Connor Ripley has made more stops for his side with 61.
Right now, Schumacher’s side are thriving thanks to the attackers outscoring their xG and Cooper making more saves than a Football Manager fanatic. Regardless of how good Cooper is as a shot-stopper, he cannot keep bailing his team out in the longer term.
It is unlikely that the team can keep outperforming their expected goals return. Sooner or later you feel that their xG and their actual goals scored will be drawn closer together as the season progresses.
For now, Schumacher’s side look strong. And the longer they can keep defying the stats, the more the excitement building in south Devon feels justified. Is something great being constructed against all the odds at Home Park?
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