A Carabao Cup semi-final line-up of Newcastle United, Manchester United, Southampton and Nottingham Forest, on the face of it, seems fairly varied. But does that make for an exciting final four, or is the winner already set in stone?
Given the recent history of the competition, it looks like Manchester United are near-certainties to lift the trophy in Erik ten Hag’s debut season. The last nine winners of this competition have come from the ‘big six’ with United’s one trophy paling into insignificance in comparison to Manchester City’s six titles.
It has certainly become Pep Guardiola’s favourite domestic competition in recent years and that’s what made the shock at St Mary’s so unexpected. But, despite the loss, the League Cup remains the play-thing of the big boys.
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The bookies certainly support that theory, United are 10/11 to end their five-year trophy drought by lifting the Carabao Cup in February. Only Swansea City and Birmingham City have won it from outside the big six since 2004, while final appearances are also limited.
Of the last 18 finalists, only Aston Villa, Southampton and Sunderland got there from outside the elite. Either Newcastle United or Saints (again) will join that list but they all ended up losing at Wembley. Now, ‘big teams win major trophies’ is hardly a story in itself, but perhaps the way they treat the Carabao Cup, and what clubs do to reach the latter stages is.
For the likes of Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool in recent years it has been a case of playing their second string and going as far as they can. This has worked perfectly for Guardiola, up until Wednesday night. Had they progressed, they would likely have gone all the way to the final as they are so tricky to beat over two legs. It’s also why United are far more likely to progress past Forest than they would be in a one-off tie.
Things only really get serious for the big clubs in this competition when they reach the final four. Then that tantalising trophy is well within reach. This weekend, however, we saw how the lesser Premier League sides prepare themselves for the latter stages of the League Cup.
Nottingham Forest picked a completely new XI against Blackpool in the FA Cup Third Round, while Eddie Howe made eight changes at Sheffield Wednesday. Both teams paid a heavy price, as Steve Cooper’s side lost 4-1 and Newcastle were beaten 2-1 by the League One outfit at Hillsborough.
It seems it is one or the other for sides with smaller squads, well, unless you are the cup miracle worker Nathan Jones. The timing of these two cup competitions, right at the start of January after a busy festive schedule, makes for difficult planning if you want to win them both and also compete in the league. It certainly contributes to more shocks in the Third Round of the FA Cup.
Eight Premier League teams fell at the first hurdle this year, which is the most at this stage since the 2007-08 season, according to Opta. That was the last season a team from outside the Premier League (Cardiff City) reached the final.
But is the semi-final just the natural end of the road for these lower-ranked sides? Last season Arsenal and Spurs were beaten semi-finalists as the big six dominated the latter stages, but it’s not unusual to see ‘smaller’ teams fall at this stage.
Burton Albion’s heroic run to the final four in 2019 ended with a brutal 10-0 aggregate hammering to eventual champions Manchester City. The Citizens also ended Bristol City’s hopes of reaching the final in 2018 while Man Utd stopped Hull City in the final four the year before.
We also saw it at last year’s World Cup. Morocco’s fairy tale run saw them become the very first African semi-finalists and they beat Spain and Portugal along the way, but ultimately they came up short against France. Quality and experience tends to tell at this stage, especially in the League Cup when you consider the big clubs have 180 minutes to get the win, and shocks are therefore less likely.
If Manchester United, as expected, go on to win the Carabao Cup, it will be another win for the big boys. But there is one wildcard in the works that could stop them. Newcastle are, for now, not part of the elite in England. But they will be soon. Currently occupying a Champions League spot, they could become the first winners of the League Cup from outside the big six since Swansea in 2013. Better make that a big seven.
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