Hands up who predicted Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal to be seven points clear as we entered 2023? No, us neither. But as the fireworks went off around the London Eye and newly-crowned national treasure Sam Ryder sang us into the New Year, the Gunners sat pretty at the top of the Premier League table.
But this isn’t a normal league campaign.
This time last year, Boris Johnson was still Prime Minister, Novak Djokovic was stuck in Australia and Elon Musk hadn’t got his filthy mitts all over Twitter. But in the top flight of English football, Manchester City had just beaten Arsenal at the Etihad to move 11 points clear at the top.
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More importantly in comparison to this season however, both City and Arsenal had played 20 games by January 2. That’s over half the season completed, and the usually busy festive period navigated. This time around however, due to the winter World Cup, we are just 16 games into the campaign.
That makes the month of January more pivotal than ever as the leaders Arsenal and the chasing pack eye up that halfway point. For the Gunners, their next three Premier League fixtures are about as tough as they come, without facing Pep Guardiola’s side.
Tonight’s opponents Newcastle United have been outrageously good so far this term under Eddie Howe. They’ve lost just once in the league this term, to a 98th minute goal at Anfield, and their stalemate with Leeds United brought to an end a winning run that had stretched seven matches.
They’ll provide a stern test at the Emirates, and one Arteta will be desperate to pass. An FA Cup trip to Oxford United should provide the first team with a rest, as the competition’s importance lessons for a side with their sights firmly set on the top four - or more. After that though, two huge Premier League games await.
First, the North London derby. Antonio Conte might be going through a sticky spell with Spurs, but Harry Kane and co are always able to cause problems, especially on derby day in front of their own fans. Spurs would love nothing more than to derail Arsenal’s title bid, so this presents a hefty obstacle between them and the halfway post.
Then, in the 19th game of their Premier League campaign, they host Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United who have won three from three and are gaining momentum ever since Cristiano Ronaldo left the building. Bear in mind the Red Devils could have added forward additions by January 22 and you have a trio of games that will make or break Arsenal before the halfway point.
This is traditionally the time of the year when Guardiola’s men shift into top gear and leave the rest of the Premier League trailing in their wake. The Citizens will be desperate to capitalise on any potential Arsenal slip up, but they are unlikely to have things all their own way.
Over the next week they face Chelsea in a league/FA Cup double, with the Premier League game taking place at Stamford Bridge. With Graham Potter seemingly under pressure already, City will go into both as favourites, but Chelsea have the ability in their squad to cause them all sorts of problems.
Once they’ve navigated that tricky doubler header, they face Southampton away in the quarter-final of the Carabao Cup. They shouldn’t find that too difficult on the pitch, but the long journey could have a hangover effect as they travel to Old Trafford for the Manchester derby on January 14. Ten Hag’s men face City and Arsenal in successive weeks and could play a big part in deciding where the title ends up over the course of January. Win both, and they are back in the running to win it for themselves.
City then host Tottenham, who will be either elated or devastated following the North London derby. Conte’s position could well come under pressure by that point and if he isn’t backed again during the transfer windows, Daniel Levy could be facing another difficult decision.
Both City and Arsenal face Spurs and Manchester United in January, but first they must contend with battles against Champions League hopefuls. Given the strength of the opposition over the next few weeks, the picture of the Premier League title race will be a lot clearer when we hit the halfway mark. It could even become a three horse race.
*18+ | BeGambleAware
